Markets on Polymarket currently assign a 22% probability to Israel launching a strike on Iran by February 28, 2026, reflecting uncertainty amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East.
Israel and Iran have long been regional adversaries, with disputes centering on Iran's nuclear program and its support for groups like Hezbollah. Israeli officials have repeatedly expressed concerns about Iran's nuclear ambitions, while Iran denies pursuing nuclear weapons. Recent escalations, including proxy conflicts and diplomatic strains, have kept the region on edge.
The probability suggests markets see a low but notable chance of military action, though the outcome remains uncertain. Factors like international diplomacy, U.S. involvement, and Iran's nuclear progress could influence the likelihood of such a strike.
This market, tracked by PreNews, is considered high-trust due to strong liquidity and significant trading volume. It resolves on February 28, 2026, based on whether Israel conducts a military strike on Iran before that date.