Markets on Polymarket assign just a 6% probability that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will no longer serve as Iran's Supreme Leader by February 28, 2026. This low figure reflects widespread skepticism about near-term leadership change in the Islamic Republic.
Khamenei, who has held the position since 1989, wields significant power as the head of state and religious leader in Iran. Speculation about his succession has occasionally surfaced due to his advanced age—he is 84—and health concerns. However, there have been no clear signs of an imminent transition, and Iran's political system is heavily controlled by conservative factions loyal to Khamenei.
The market's high liquidity and trading volume underscore confidence in this pricing. According to PreNews, traders appear to view any potential leadership change as unlikely in the short term, barring unforeseen developments. The market resolves on February 28, 2026, based on whether Khamenei is no longer Supreme Leader by that date.