Markets are assigning just a 3% probability to a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine by March 31, 2026, according to data from Polymarket. This reflects deep skepticism about the likelihood of a negotiated resolution to the ongoing conflict, which began with Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Despite intermittent talks and international pressure, the war has shown little sign of abating. Both sides remain entrenched, with Ukraine continuing to receive Western military support while Russia persists in its territorial ambitions. The conflict has had far-reaching geopolitical and economic consequences, including energy market disruptions and heightened global tensions.
The market's low probability underscores traders’ doubts about a near-term diplomatic breakthrough. With $459,005 in 24-hour trading volume and $895,718 in liquidity, the signal is considered reliable. This market will resolve based on whether an official ceasefire is declared and implemented by the March 2026 deadline.
PreNews will continue to monitor developments as the situation evolves.