Markets on Polymarket currently assign only a 3% probability that Donald Trump will leave office by March 31, 2026, signaling strong skepticism toward this outcome.
Trump, the 45th U.S. president and a leading Republican candidate for the 2024 election, has faced significant legal and political challenges, including multiple indictments. However, his continued dominance in GOP polling and his ability to rally support among his base appear to underpin the market's low confidence in his early departure from office, should he win the presidency again.
This market reflects traders' expectations that Trump will likely remain in office through at least March 2026 if elected. The resolution criteria for this market specify that it resolves to "Yes" only if Trump is no longer serving as U.S. president by that date. With $81,102 traded in the last 24 hours and $170,406 in liquidity, the market signal is robust. PreNews will continue to monitor developments.