Markets on Polymarket currently price a 0% probability that the United States will strike Iran by February 18, 2026. This reflects significant skepticism among traders about the likelihood of military escalation between the two nations in the near term.
Tensions between the US and Iran have been a recurring theme in global geopolitics, with disputes over Iran's nuclear program, regional influence, and sanctions enforcement frequently straining relations. However, recent diplomatic efforts and a lack of immediate triggers for conflict may explain the market's low expectations for a military strike.
The market, which resolves on January 31, 2026, will settle based on whether any US military action against Iran occurs before the specified date. While the trading volume over the past 24 hours reached $4.48 million, the 0% pricing suggests traders see no credible path to escalation at this time. PreNews will continue monitoring developments in this space.