Markets on Polymarket currently assign just a 1% probability to the United States launching a military strike against Iran by February 19, 2026. This low likelihood reflects widespread skepticism among traders despite persistent tensions between the two nations.
US-Iran relations have been strained for decades, with flashpoints including disputes over Iran's nuclear program and its regional influence. While the US has imposed sanctions and engaged in proxy conflicts, direct military action remains rare. Recent diplomatic efforts, including attempts to revive the Iran nuclear deal, may have contributed to the market's low estimate of escalation.
The market, which has high liquidity and significant trading volume, suggests confidence in a peaceful resolution or continued status quo. The resolution criteria specify that the market resolves "Yes" only if the US conducts a military strike on Iranian territory before the deadline. As of now, traders see this as highly unlikely.