Markets are pricing in just a 2% probability that the Federal Reserve will implement 12 or more interest rate cuts in 2026, according to data from Polymarket. This reflects significant skepticism about the likelihood of such an aggressive monetary policy reversal.
The Federal Reserve, which has been focused on combating inflation in recent years, has raised interest rates aggressively since 2022. While some analysts anticipate rate cuts in the future as inflation moderates, the idea of 12 or more cuts in a single year would represent an extraordinary shift in policy, likely signaling severe economic distress or a major deflationary shock.
With $38,636 in 24-hour trading volume and $49,822 in liquidity, this high-trust market indicates that traders see such a scenario as highly improbable. The market resolves on December 31, 2026, based on whether the Fed executes 12 or more rate cuts during that calendar year.