Markets on Polymarket currently assign just a 1% probability to Andrew Yang winning the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, signaling widespread skepticism about his chances.
Yang, a former entrepreneur and 2020 presidential candidate, gained national attention for his advocacy of universal basic income and his outsider status. Despite his initial popularity among younger voters and tech-savvy demographics, his political momentum has waned in recent years. After an unsuccessful bid for New York City mayor in 2021, Yang left the Democratic Party to co-found the Forward Party, which focuses on electoral reform and centrist policies.
The low market confidence reflects challenges Yang would face in re-entering Democratic politics, including competition from established party figures and the difficulty of regaining a national platform.
According to PreNews, traders are pricing this market with high liquidity and significant volume, making the 1% probability a reliable indicator. The market resolves on November 7, 2028, the date of the U.S. presidential election.