Markets on Polymarket currently assign a 0% probability to France winning the most medals at the 2026 Winter Olympics, signaling strong skepticism about the country's prospects.
France, while a consistent competitor in winter sports, has historically lagged behind powerhouses like Norway, Germany, and the United States in medal counts. The 2026 Winter Olympics, set to take place in Milan and Cortina d'Ampezzo, Italy, will feature events where these nations traditionally dominate, such as biathlon, alpine skiing, and speed skating.
Despite hosting the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris, which could boost national sports momentum, traders appear unconvinced that France will translate this into winter sports success.
The market's 0% probability reflects high confidence in this outcome, with the market resolving after the Games conclude on February 22, 2026.