Markets are pricing in just a 1% probability that former Vice President Mike Pence will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, according to data from Polymarket. The low figure reflects widespread skepticism about Pence's political prospects within the GOP.
Pence, who served as vice president under Donald Trump from 2017 to 2021, has faced challenges in maintaining broad support among Republican voters. His relationship with Trump, once a key ally, became strained following the January 6 Capitol riots, where Pence resisted pressure to overturn the 2020 election results. This rift has complicated his standing within a party still heavily influenced by Trump’s base.
The market’s pricing suggests traders see Pence as a long-shot candidate for 2028, with other potential contenders likely to dominate the field. The market is highly liquid, with $139,273 in 24-hour trading volume and a resolution date set for November 7, 2028.
PreNews will continue to monitor this and other key political markets as the 2028 race takes shape.