Markets are pricing just a 4% probability that OpenAI’s valuation will fall between $1.25 trillion and $1.5 trillion at the close of its IPO day, according to data from Polymarket. This reflects significant skepticism about the AI giant reaching such a high valuation in the near term.
OpenAI, the company behind the widely used ChatGPT, has been at the forefront of artificial intelligence advancements, attracting significant investment and attention. However, concerns about market saturation, regulatory scrutiny, and competition from other tech giants may be tempering expectations for its IPO valuation.
The market’s low confidence is notable, given the company’s prominence in the AI space. PreNews notes that this market resolves based on OpenAI’s market capitalization at the close of its IPO day, which is expected by June 30, 2026. With moderate liquidity in the market, the probability offers a cautious but reasonable signal of current sentiment.