Markets on Polymarket are pricing only a 3% probability that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will meet in person by March 31, 2026. This low likelihood reflects deep skepticism about the prospects for direct diplomacy amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.
The conflict, which began with Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, has shown little sign of resolution. Zelenskyy has repeatedly stated that peace talks are contingent on Russia withdrawing its forces, while Putin has maintained his stance on territorial claims. The international community has largely backed Ukraine, with sanctions on Russia and military aid to Kyiv further complicating the possibility of negotiations.
PreNews notes that this market has high liquidity and significant trading volume, underscoring the reliability of the 3% probability. The market will resolve based on whether a verified in-person meeting occurs by the March 2026 deadline.