Markets on Polymarket currently assign a 0% probability that Richard Grenell, a former U.S. ambassador and acting Director of National Intelligence, will become the leader of Venezuela by the end of 2026. This reflects significant skepticism about the feasibility of such a scenario.
Grenell, known for his diplomatic roles under the Trump administration, has not been publicly linked to any political ambitions in Venezuela. The South American nation has been under the leadership of Nicolás Maduro since 2013, despite international disputes over the legitimacy of his presidency. Opposition leader Juan Guaidó was recognized by the U.S. and other nations as interim president in 2019, but Maduro has retained control domestically.
Given the current political landscape in Venezuela and Grenell's lack of direct involvement in its affairs, traders appear to view this outcome as implausible. The market resolves on December 31, 2026, and the 0% probability reflects high confidence in this assessment, supported by strong liquidity and trading volume.