Markets currently assign only a 13% probability to the Iranian regime collapsing by March 31, 2026, according to data from Polymarket. Despite ongoing unrest and international scrutiny, traders remain skeptical of a near-term regime change in Tehran.
Iran has faced significant domestic and international challenges in recent years, including widespread protests over economic conditions, political repression, and women's rights. The death of Mahsa Amini in 2022 sparked a wave of demonstrations, but the regime has so far maintained its grip on power through a combination of crackdowns and internal control mechanisms.
The low probability reflects market confidence in the regime's ability to weather these challenges, at least in the medium term. With $167,800 in 24-hour trading volume and $206,214 in liquidity, this high-trust market provides a reliable signal of trader sentiment. The market will resolve based on whether the Iranian regime falls by the specified date in 2026.