Markets on Polymarket currently assign a 0% probability to the formation of a Dutch government coalition including the PVV, GL/PvdA, VVD, CDA, and D66. This reflects significant skepticism about the feasibility of such a broad and ideologically diverse alliance.
The Netherlands recently held parliamentary elections, with coalition talks now underway. The PVV, led by Geert Wilders, emerged as the largest party, but its far-right stance makes collaboration with left-leaning GL/PvdA and centrist parties like D66 unlikely. Historically, Dutch coalition-building has required extensive negotiations, often spanning months, due to the fragmented political landscape.
The market's pricing suggests traders see no realistic path for these parties to bridge their ideological divides. While the Dutch political system is known for compromise, this particular coalition appears implausible to market participants.
As of now, the market's 0% probability reflects strong doubts, though political dynamics can shift. PreNews will monitor developments as coalition talks progress.