Markets currently assign a 0% probability to the possibility of the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) and the center-right People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) forming the next Dutch government, according to data from Polymarket. This reflects significant skepticism among traders about the feasibility of such a coalition.
The PVV, led by Geert Wilders, is known for its anti-immigration stance and Euroskeptic policies, while the VVD, led by outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte, has traditionally positioned itself as a pro-European, fiscally conservative party. Coalition talks in the Netherlands often involve complex negotiations, and ideological differences between these two parties may explain the market's pessimism.
PreNews notes that while the market's liquidity is moderate, the 0% pricing suggests traders see no realistic path for this coalition to materialize. The market does not have a specific resolution date, but it will hinge on the eventual formation of the Dutch government.