Markets on Polymarket currently assign a 0% probability to the United States winning the most gold medals at the 2026 Winter Olympics, set to take place in Milan and Cortina, Italy. This reflects significant skepticism about Team USA's ability to dominate the medal tally.
Historically, the United States has been a strong contender in the Winter Games, excelling in events like snowboarding, alpine skiing, and figure skating. However, recent competitions have seen countries like Norway, Germany, and Canada outperform the U.S. in gold medal counts. At the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics, Norway led with 16 golds, while the U.S. secured only 8.
The market's outlook suggests traders expect this trend to continue, with other nations maintaining their dominance in winter sports. The market, which has high liquidity and a 24-hour trading volume of $51,888, will resolve on February 22, 2026, based on the official medal standings.
PreNews will continue monitoring this market as the Games approach.