Markets on Polymarket currently price only a 3% probability that the United States will invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026, signaling strong skepticism about such a scenario.
While tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela have persisted for years, particularly over issues like human rights, sanctions, and disputed elections, the market appears to view direct military intervention as highly unlikely. The Biden administration has largely focused on diplomatic and economic measures, such as easing some oil sanctions in exchange for political reforms, rather than pursuing military options.
The market's low probability reflects this context, with traders seemingly betting on continued non-military approaches to U.S.-Venezuela relations.
This market, hosted on Polymarket, has high liquidity and significant trading activity, suggesting a reliable signal. The market resolves on March 31, 2026, based on whether an invasion occurs by that date.