Markets on Polymarket currently assign a 0% probability to former World Bank President David Malpass being nominated as the next Federal Reserve chair by Donald Trump. This reflects strong skepticism among traders despite Malpass’s prior ties to the Trump administration.
Malpass, who served as Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs under Trump and later led the World Bank, has been a prominent figure in economic policy circles. However, his nomination for Fed chair appears unlikely, especially as the Federal Reserve operates independently of the executive branch and nominations often require bipartisan Senate approval. Current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, appointed by Trump in 2018, has maintained his position through the Biden administration.
The market’s 0% pricing suggests traders see no realistic pathway for Malpass to secure the nomination, even if Trump were to regain the presidency. This market resolves at the end of 2026, providing ample time for developments, though current sentiment is definitive.