Markets on Polymarket are pricing a 0% probability that former President Donald Trump would nominate Jerome Powell as the next Federal Reserve Chair if Trump were to return to office. This reflects strong skepticism about Powell's future under a potential Trump administration.
Jerome Powell, appointed by Trump in 2018, has led the Federal Reserve through a tumultuous period, including the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent economic recovery. However, Trump has been openly critical of Powell in the past, particularly over interest rate policies, which could explain the market's view. Powell’s current term as Fed Chair ends in February 2026.
The market’s pricing suggests traders see no realistic scenario where Powell would be reappointed under Trump, should Trump win the 2024 presidential election. This market resolves by the end of 2026, based on whether Powell is officially nominated by Trump. PreNews will continue to monitor developments.