Markets on Polymarket are pricing a 0% probability that Donald Trump will nominate no one to key positions before the end of 2026. This reflects strong skepticism among traders about the likelihood of inaction if Trump were to return to the presidency.
Trump, the former U.S. president and current Republican frontrunner for the 2024 election, has historically been active in nominating candidates for federal positions, including judges and cabinet members. His administration saw a record number of judicial appointments, reshaping the federal judiciary. If re-elected, it is widely expected he would continue this trend, making the market's pricing of inaction virtually nonexistent.
This market, tracked by PreNews, has high liquidity and significant trading volume, reinforcing the reliability of the signal. The market resolves on December 31, 2026, based on whether Trump nominates anyone to federal positions during this period.