Markets on Polymarket currently assign a 27% probability to the likelihood of the United States or Israel conducting a military strike on Iran by February 28, 2026. This reflects uncertainty in the geopolitical landscape as tensions persist.
Iran's nuclear program has long been a point of contention, with the U.S. and Israel expressing concerns over potential weaponization. Israel has historically taken a hardline stance, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu repeatedly emphasizing that military action remains on the table. Meanwhile, the U.S. has pursued a mix of diplomacy and sanctions to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions, though military options are not ruled out.
Recent escalations in the region, including proxy conflicts and maritime incidents, may influence this probability. However, the absence of immediate triggers tempers expectations of imminent action.
PreNews notes that this market, with high liquidity and significant trading volume, provides a reliable gauge of sentiment. The market resolves based on whether either country conducts a military strike on Iranian territory by the specified date.