Markets on Polymarket currently assign a 0% probability that South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol will be sentenced to 5–10 years in prison by the end of 2026. This reflects significant skepticism about the likelihood of legal jeopardy for the leader.
Yoon, who assumed office in May 2022, has faced political challenges during his presidency, including public discontent over domestic policies and foreign relations. However, there have been no major legal controversies or investigations targeting him personally, which likely explains the market's confidence in his legal safety. South Korea has seen former presidents face legal consequences in the past, but traders appear to view Yoon's situation as distinct.
The market, which has seen $78,144 in 24-hour trading volume, will resolve at the end of 2026 based on whether Yoon receives a sentence in the specified range. While the medium-trust nature of this market warrants some caution, the 0% pricing suggests traders see no immediate risk of such an outcome.