Markets on Kalshi currently price a 0% probability that all listed NCAA basketball teams will qualify for the 2026 NCAA Tournament. The list includes prominent programs such as Alabama, Kansas, and Gonzaga, alongside smaller schools like Queens University and Lipscomb.
The NCAA Tournament, also known as March Madness, is a high-stakes, single-elimination competition featuring 68 teams. Qualification depends on a mix of conference championships and at-large bids determined by the NCAA selection committee. The inclusion of smaller programs on this list likely contributes to market skepticism, as their qualification often hinges on winning conference tournaments, a challenging feat.
This market's low probability reflects traders' doubts about the feasibility of all listed teams qualifying simultaneously. However, with low liquidity and trading volume, the market's reliability is limited, and its pricing should be interpreted cautiously.
The market resolves on March 5, 2026, based on official NCAA Tournament selections.