Markets are pricing a 0% probability that all seven listed colleges—Mississippi State, Kansas, Illinois State, Washington State, St. John's, Saint Mary's, and Utah—will qualify for the NCAA Tournament by March 2026. This reflects significant skepticism about the collective performance of these teams over the next two seasons.
The NCAA Tournament, commonly known as March Madness, is one of the most prestigious events in college basketball, with 68 teams competing for the national championship. While powerhouses like Kansas are regular contenders, others on the list, such as Illinois State and Washington State, face steeper challenges in securing a berth due to tougher competition and recent performance records.
Given the low-trust nature of this market, with thin liquidity and no recent trading activity, the 0% probability should be interpreted cautiously. The market resolves on March 5, 2026, based on the official tournament bracket.